Thursday, September 11, 2008

India, Pakistan, and the War in the Middle East

Let's examine the structure of some key international relationships for a moment. China, long an enemy of India, has a cozy alliance with Pakistan, India's mortal enemy. The two together threaten the third on two fronts. This is a dangerous situation for India.

We all know that the USA has shaky alliance with Pakistan as well. Americans need Pakistani support against Iran, the Taliban and Pakistani extremists. To a lesser extent, the USA need Pakistani support in Iraq and other parts of the region.

This is system of alliances isn't all that stable. China is the single biggest geopolitcal threat to the USA today. India and the USA are the biggest threats to China. Our alliance with Pakistan puts us in the awkward position of propping up China's containment of India, therby making China's position more secure.

A better solution for the USA might be this: Abandon the Pakistani alliance in favor of an Indian alliance. Make it very clear to Pakistan that it needs to allow American forces into its Western regions, or else face military action from both the USA and India, now mutually supporting. The Pakistanis would have no choice but to assent. China will not go to war with the USA and India to save Pakistan. China's encirclement of India would be effectively broken, the USA has an even more reliable ally on Iran's doorstep, and American forces will operate in the tribal regions of Western Pakistan with impunity.

I can forsee only one problem (though there are likely others). It might be important to the US strategy to maintian alliances with Muslim nations. Abandoning the alliance with Pakistan would be a serious blow to that strategy. We have options, though. Indonesia seems to me to be an excellent candidate for an ally. It certainly has a large enough population to contribute troops to peacekeeping in Iraq and Afganistan. I dare say that Syria might also be an excellent ally, as that would draw it out of Iran's orbit. This, of course, could only happen if raproachment with Israel could be acheived. Whether or not that is possible remains to be seen. So we have options in this regard.

This, or something like it, should be the policy of the next US president.